how many have died from the flu this year in canada

7, up slightly from 5.1% the week before.

"The predictive models of 2009 of influenza have actually been a complete failure," respiratory-infection expert Jefferson said. high-risk patients who have contracted the virus should treat them promptly with antivirals.Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on American Academy of Pediatrics.NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. He said hard data on flu deaths "are difficult to get hold of for obvious reasons. "I think people may have the misconception that every person who dies from the flu is somehow counted somewhere, and they're not," Gardam said.The "2,000 to 8,000" numbers are based on computer models — a statistical guess that comes out of the end of a mathematical formula that makes a range of assumptions about death and flu. ".Did you ever wonder how they know that? We rarely test for anything else. And death can be complicated. cause severe illness in children.Hospitalization rates for children also are unusually high. "The proof of what I am saying is in the answer to the question: How many die every year? "These are complicated models. "As an upper limit, they are looking at everybody who died of a heart and lung problem," Gardam said. "They're tossing it into a big computer and they're churning out estimates," Gardam said as he scribbled numbers on a white board to show me how the models work.One model counts all respiratory and circulatory deaths — that's death from heart and lung failure — as flu deaths. to a.Deaths among children are higher than during the same period in every other season But in 2003 Health Canada. "We see lots of people coming in with upper respiratory infections and we don't know what causes it. "This is a scientific guess. In the language of the computer model, all excess mortality in winter is considered "death by flu. A lot more is known about the flu, as it has been around in many different forms for hundreds of years. A more conservative approach might be better to convince people it's a real disease that we have to take seriously. But if you ask, "8,000 deaths out of how many people?"

In other words, in a normal flu season, about  0.02 per cent of Canadians are in danger of dying from the flu, using the highest estimate. Then, using one of the official flu modelling methods, she ran a computer model to see how close the actual body count matched the statistical estimates.

"You've got to wonder: The stuff we're attributing to influenza, how much of that is actually true and how much of that is other viruses? Answer: maybe 300 or maybe 9,000. Here is my email to him:He wrote back, declining on Tiffany Smith's behalf, although he did offer me a chance to ask about the official government point of view.

His email:As a further aside, despite Alastair Sinclair's offer to answer questions, we were refused an on camera interview with anyone from Health Canada about any of this. So far this season,105 children have died from the flu, according to data released Friday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At least half of the children who die from the flu were otherwise healthy, he said. This is not the truth," Dr. Michael Gardam, director of the infection prevention and control unit at the University Health Network in Toronto and a longtime flu watcher, told me.The fact is, no one knows how many people die after being infected with the flu virus. Rates for children ages 5-17 are 22.6 per 100,000 children, "There are no real figures on deaths from influenza. H1N1 is a subtype of the influenza A strain, which also affects children more than adults. These page includes information about the estimated burden of influenza from past seasons, including tables of the estimated influenza disease burden (and 95% credible interval [Cr I]) by age group. Your risk of dying is less. I've already heard it repeated several times this year and flu season has just started. First, she counted the patients who died from flu, according to a doctor's diagnosis. Deaths among children are higher than during the same period in every other season since reporting started in 2004-’05 with the exception of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. ",Wilson is concerned that overstating deaths could undermine the annual flu campaign. It also happens to be the only one with a vaccine. "So if they don't collect that information, how do they know it's a threat? Yes, no one knows exactly what the threat is. They believe it underestimates the true death toll from flu.But Jefferson believes the models overstate the risk from influenza.

"The only mortality estimates which have any credibility are those based on post mortem examinations and tests which were done before death," Jefferson said.In a perfect world, the flu death statistic would be based on an actual count of confirmed deaths after infection with the flu virus. So enter modelling, which is nothing more than guesswork, highly sensitive to the assumptions you feed into the model. ",One of the few attempts to check the accuracy of the models in assessing flu deaths was done by one of Wilson's master's students, and her thesis is.Using data from three Ottawa hospitals over seven flu seasons, Tiffany Smith did two things.

There are lots of potential variables in the model that will influence your answer.

All we received was a written response to our questions, which I have included at the end of this article.Getting back to the question of how deadly influenza really is, fate did offer up a chance to check the model predictions when the flu pandemic hit in 2009, and the world faced a new influenza threat called H1N1.Back then a flu expert told me that the pandemic would be a rare opportunity to check the true death toll from flu, because, for the first time, there was widespread lab testing, a national reporting system, and all eyes were on potential flu-related deaths. The news shared by this misleading tweet is fake. More than a decade ago, flu was estimated to kill about 500 to 1,500 Canadians every year.

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